Taiwan's Presidential Election Elicits Strong Response in Indo-Pacific

After Taiwanese President-elect Lai Ching-Te secured victory, he received congratulations as anticipated from the Biden administration and certain close U.S. partners in Asia, including Australia. They extended their congratulations on his win and applauded the electoral process. Notably, both countries referred to Lai as “Dr.” instead of “president-elect.” The Biden administration also clearly noted that it did not support Taiwan’s formal independence. A U.S. statement said, “We look forward to working with Dr. Lai and Taiwan’s leaders of all parties to advance our shared interests and values, and to further our longstanding unofficial relationship, consistent with the U.S. one China policy.”

Yet somewhat surprisingly, some U.S. partners in the region went further in what would seem like a challenge to China. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who has notably diverged from his predecessor’s policies of actively engaging with China, has opted for stronger security ties with Washington. Despite potential repercussions from Beijing, he congratulated Lai on his victory, emphasized the mutual interests between the Philippines and Taiwan, and referred to him as “president-elect.” This stance goes beyond that of the United States, Taiwan’s primary supporter, and other regional U.S. partners such as Australia and South Korea. China responded harshly to this statement; it does not forget the actions of regional countries like the Philippines. Marcos Jr. may have decided that he needs to be perceived as fully supporting U.S. interests in the region to shore up U.S. backing in the case of conflict with China in the South China Sea. (Credit to David Sacks for suggesting this; it seems right, although the United States has already come down fairly firmly in suggesting that it would come to Manila’s backing in case of a conflict.)

Japan, which has been assertively building closer security ties in the region with U.S. partners like the Philippines and generally bolstering its preparation for a possible regional conflict, also issued a strong statement—one that Beijing quickly responded to with anger. Following Lai’s win, Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa congratulated him, noting in a ministry statement that the island was “an extremely crucial partner and an important friend” of Japan. Beijing quickly responded via its embassy in Japan by releasing a statement saying it “resolutely opposed” Kawakawa’s statement and said Japan was interfering in China’s internal affairs. Beijing also criticized Singapore for congratulating Lai on his victory and vowed to issue demarches to the city-state, which has long had strong informal links to Taiwan.

On the other hand, just after the election, China poached Nauru, one of Taiwan’s few remaining formal diplomatic allies, which had been important to Taipei in the Pacific. These few remaining diplomatic allies are critical to maintaining Taiwan’s international presence. Under the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), China has drawn away most of Taiwan’s remaining formal allies, including important Central American partners like Honduras. Now, Taiwan has only twelve diplomatic allies in the world. If the number eventually dwindles to zero, which is indeed a possibility, it could potentially impact the travel plans of Taiwanese officials and Taiwan’s participation in certain international organizations.

China’s closest regional partners, like Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar, will likely issue statements echoing China’s view of Taiwan’s status. For instance, the Maldives, which has aggressively courted China, gave a statement that sounded like the Chinese foreign ministry wrote it. Meanwhile, other Southeast Asian states are going to muddle through. Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and other countries are set to affirm the One China policy. However, they will refrain from explicitly congratulating the Taiwanese president-elect, instead emphasizing the call for peaceful reunification.